Risk calculators that doctors use to estimate a person’s risk of a heart attack or stroke work about as well for predicting certain cancers, according to a new study by UCL researchers.
The tools are used widely by GPs and hospitals across the UK and estimate a person’s percentage risk of getting a heart attack or stroke over a 10-year period. They use factors such as age, BMI, and smoking status, which are factors also linked to a higher risk of cancer.
Published in the European Journal of Cancer and covered today in The Express, the study found that, in adults aged 40 to 84, the tools estimated risk of common cancer types - including bowel, prostate and breast cancer - about as well as a specialist cancer risk calculator. For several other cancers, including kidney, throat and stomach cancer, they performed about the same or better than they do for predicting heart attack and stroke.
Lead author Dr Sam Quill, a PhD student at the UCL Institute of Cardiovascular Science who is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre: UCLH, said: “More and more evidence is emerging that many cancers can potentially be prevented. Detecting cancer early through screening is important, but there is also more we could do to prevent cancer from developing in the first place”
The research team examined four tools that are used to assess heart disease and stroke risk globally. This included the QRISK3 tool that is already widely used in the UK and as part of the NHS Health Check. They tested how well the models performed for predicting cancer using anonymised patient data from the UK Biobank and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, which contain data on more than 5 million people across the UK.
The tools including QRISK3 were able to predict certain cancers similarly to how they predict heart disease and stroke, suggesting their use could potentially be expanded in the clinic in future.
People who have a higher risk of heart disease and stroke based on the QRISK3 tool are typically offered statins and in some cases blood pressure-lowering medication on the NHS, as well as given advice on healthy living.
Dr Quill said: “In the UK, we currently offer statins to people at higher risk of heart disease using the QRISK3 tool. Our study suggests the risk of certain cancers could be estimated at the same time. However, the value of these tools in cancer prevention needs to be weighed carefully against wider efforts to reduce cancer risk for everyone. More research is needed to explore which approach and which interventions work best.”
The researchers were supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre: UCLH and the research was funded by the Health Data Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, the charity Rosetrees and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).
Read the original research paper.
